Объяснил мировой общественности особенности российско-белорусской дружбы:
...At this point, it is almost impossible to predict how Lukashenko can politically survive without Moscow’s support. Belarus is often compared to Ukraine, which successfully conned Russia into believing that it participated in post-Soviet integration for years and, eventually, broke with Russia in a violent way. That comparison is valuable to the degree that it helps to understand the major differences between the two countries. First, Lukashenko has been known to the West for decades, and is known as “the Last Dictator of Europe” for a reason. He can hardly pretend to be born-again democrat, and accepting him might be very toxic for European politicians. Second, those Belarusian intellectuals in favor of turning from Russia to the West have mostly left the country and have no popular support domestically. Third, there is no popular anti-Russian movement inside Belarus. If anything, culturally and economically, the Belarusian people may be more interested in integrating with Russia than Lukashenko. Fourth, and most importantly, the Belarusian president is in a drastic need of outside support, especially cash for the struggling Belarusian economy. He needs hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars. There is just no source of that kind of money in the West. With everything the Trump administration has on its plate and the growing EU crisis, Lukashenko has no choice but to follow an integration scenario led by Moscow...
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...At this point, it is almost impossible to predict how Lukashenko can politically survive without Moscow’s support. Belarus is often compared to Ukraine, which successfully conned Russia into believing that it participated in post-Soviet integration for years and, eventually, broke with Russia in a violent way. That comparison is valuable to the degree that it helps to understand the major differences between the two countries. First, Lukashenko has been known to the West for decades, and is known as “the Last Dictator of Europe” for a reason. He can hardly pretend to be born-again democrat, and accepting him might be very toxic for European politicians. Second, those Belarusian intellectuals in favor of turning from Russia to the West have mostly left the country and have no popular support domestically. Third, there is no popular anti-Russian movement inside Belarus. If anything, culturally and economically, the Belarusian people may be more interested in integrating with Russia than Lukashenko. Fourth, and most importantly, the Belarusian president is in a drastic need of outside support, especially cash for the struggling Belarusian economy. He needs hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars. There is just no source of that kind of money in the West. With everything the Trump administration has on its plate and the growing EU crisis, Lukashenko has no choice but to follow an integration scenario led by Moscow...
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